No SATC2 Position

Someone emailed and asked if I had a position for “Sex and The City 2″ and the answer is no. In fact, as you can see from the volume numbers, no one on Intrade has an SATC2 position! Epic fail. The contracts were even listed three or four weeks in advance of this weekend. I could do 500 words on how Intrade could attract more volume but I have neither the time nor energy to churn that out right now.

As for the actual movie…I am embarrassed to admit I watched the first one (it was on HBO [shocker] a few months back), but this sequel looks like the most plot-less film in recent memory. I mean, honestly, has anyone watched the trailer or the ads for this movie?? If you have please chime in on the comments. The film is currently scoring a stellar 16% on Rotten Tomatoes, but Nikki Finke says it did $3m in midnights alone last night. It will probably rake in $20m by day’s end, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the 5-day tally at $75m+ by the time Tuesday morning rolls around. So as much as I detest the movie, the businessman in me says Kudos to whoever green-lit the second film.

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In case you’re reading this…64Push, are you still bouncing around Europe? At least Daily Chuck seems to be back.

Quick Takes

I have not been doing much trading lately. Just building a couple movie positions that I will keep close to the vest until their release weeks. But let’s take a quick look at some of the “hot contracts” on the exchange right now.

American Idol Winner – Crystal Bowersox’s price has steadily fallen from the low 60′s all the way down to the high teens in recent weeks. At the same time Lee DeWyze has rocketed up past 80. I follow the show casually and it looks like DeWyze has the title locked up. Simon predicted he would win, and DialIdol.com is predicting a Lee blowout. If I had to pick any two sources to run with those two would be it.

LeBron James – I was real happy to see Intrade get this contract up as quick as they did. This is where the company can garner some good press. Let’s face it, gasoline contracts are compelling to about 3% of the population, whereas there are millions of sports fans eager for any kind of LeBron news or tidbits. The “LeBron Cavs” contract has traded in a tight range. My gut says he bounces, but I am not willing to short the contract at 36. If the Cavs go out and hire a legit coach like Pat Riley, the price should spike 8 or 10 points.

Kentucky U.S. Senate – Rand Paul won last week’s Republican primary then preceded to grab one of the 3rd rails of American politics (civil rights) with both hands, sending his price from 75 down to the high 50′s. I’ve actually been to Kentucky a few times in the last couple years and don’t get me wrong they’re good people down there. But Rand Paul could say even more outlandish stuff regarding civil rights and I doubt most of the voters of the state would bat an eyelash. I’d really be shocked if he doesn’t win this race in November.

Sarah Palin Presidential Run – I have blogged about this contract numerous times in the past. The price got up past 60 in the last couple weeks as Obama continues to take heat on the BP debacle, and Palin dropped a couple nuggets about November. Ultimately I don’t think she has made up her mind, but the longer Obama’s approval sits in the 40′s (while there is concurrently a lack of a Republican front-runner for 2012), the longer she will continue to trade in the 55 to 65 range.

Iron Man 2 $128.1m Actual

The weekend actual for “Iron Man 2″ came in about an hour ago at $128.1m. The breakdown was $51.2m for Friday (including midnights), $45.8m for Saturday, and then a larger than expected 32% drop on Sunday for a $31.1m. Overall, $128.1m is a bit of a disappointment, seeing as though most pundits were projecting an absolute floor of $135m, and there was substantial talk of IM2 taking down the “The Dark Knight’s” untouchable $158.4m record from 2008.

I was saved by the relative lack of volume on Intrade’s IM2 opening weekend contracts. I had some aggressive bids out on the $135m, $140m, and $145m contracts as late as Friday afternoon, but didn’t find any takers. In the interests of full disclosure, my positions for IM2 were as follows:

$125m contract: 18 @ 66.6
$130m contract: $6.50 trading loss
$135m contract: 14 @ 26 (plus a $4 trading gain)

Looking ahead to “Robin Hood” this weekend, my initial gut read is $35m with a potential for disappointment to the downside.

Iron Man 2 Week (All Week)

Well the Summer Movie Season has finally arrived. I will keep an open post going with any and all Iron Man 2 tidbits I come across.

The Weekend Warrior is out the the first major projection for the opening weekend number — $162.3m

Over on the HSX boards, user “notfabio” has posted the MTC and RS tracking numbers for Iron Man 2′s opening weekend.
RS – Low $160′s aka $160m-$162.5m
MTC – $150m

5/6 Update
I predicted nearly two weeks ago that “Iron Man 2″ would receive the widest release in movie history. And indeed, Nikki Finke of Deadline.com told us yesterday… “Here’s one for the record books. When it arrives in theaters tonight at midnight, Iron Man 2 will have the widest initial release in Hollywood history with Paramount launching the Marvel comic book caper in 4,380 locations. The previous widest opening had been Warner Bros’ The Dark Knight with 4,366 venues.”

Noted box office prognosticator Gitesh Pandya has come in with a $148m prediction over at Box Office Guru

Another excellent box office prognosticator Yun Xia has posted a $155m projection for this weekend.

Three Companies in the News

Whether I have tipped my hand in the past or not, I am an avid equities trader, usually focusing on short-term trades (one week to three months). One of the classic rules of trading (hat tip to my friend RF over at Trade 24/7) is to “buy the dips and sell the rips.” Well right now there are three companies in the news and they are all dipping hard.

Goldman Sachs (GS) was hit by the initial SEC bombshell last week and then the Manhattan U.S. Attorney’s office got in to the act after-hours yesterday with bombshell #2. As of right now, it looks like Goldman has bounced off their intra-day low of 144.44 as it now sits at 146.73. Two weeks ago, Goldman was at 185.

The other two companies in the news are the offshore drilling giant Transocean (RIG), and British Petroleum (BP) — the two “public enemies” in the oil rig explosion/oil spill debacle that has been playing out in the Gulf of Mexico over the last week. Transocean shares were torn to shreds this morning but have rebounded a bit this afternoon trading at 73 (they were at 90 last Friday). The market has been a touch kinder to BP, as their shares are off only 10% in the last week. Transocean’s more dramatic price dip is is due mostly to the fact that the company has WAY more exposure (as compared to large diversified oil giant BP) to potential political and legal crackdowns on offshore drilling. President Obama has already announced the U.S. will halt all new offshore drilling until the Gulf debacle is fully investigated.

Keep a close eye on these three companies in the next few weeks. Obviously there is a ton of uncertainty, so tread carefully, but oftentimes a lot of money can be made in these types of situations. Please note that the views expressed in this post are my own personal views, and that I am not recommending a buy or sell on any of these stocks, just trying to draw your attention to them. Charts are below.

NYT Piece Mentions Intrade

One of the blogs on the New York Times website had a decent puff-piece on Intrade and the Blankfein resignation market. Link

Usually I club any article that references a market with low volume, but the 224 shares traded in 48 hours isn’t too shabby. I tried to short the contract at 50, but couldn’t get the order in fast enough. The only way Blankfein leaves is if he falls on the sword, but that still won’t prevent the government from going for their pound of flesh. Thus I see little reason for him to resign.