It’s time for a game!

Q: Which two charts look remarkably familiar?
A: The Obama 2012 Pres contract chart and the Dow chart over the last week!

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

Harry Potter mania is abound!

I just wanted to get my prediction down on paper lest I nail the final number and want proof to show everyone.

While I think there is a decent chance Potter can take down The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4m set three years ago, I am going to officially predict $153.5m.

Friday midnights: $43.5m (as per Deadline.com)
Rest of Friday: $42m
Total Friday: $82.5m (new single day record)
Saturday: $40m
Sunday: $31m
Total: $153.5m

I have been mainly trading the $160m contract. Someone has consistently buying my high-priced asks. Like I said, I think there is a decent chance that Potter breaks TDK’s record, but certainly not a 75% chance, and even then I still have an extra $1.6m to play with. Anyways…stay tuned.

Update

Well, as per normal I let the blog die for a couple months. But I am going to try to keep it “hot and fresh” here from now through the Republican primaries early nest year. Here’s what I have been trading the last two months and here’s what’s currently in my portfolio…

- Made some decent money on “Green Lantern.”
- Lost a little bit on Anthony Weiner. Word to the wise…always cover if you’ve made 40 or 50 pts. I shorted his resignation contract at 60 when he was defiant at the first press conference, and could have covered at 10, but didn’t have any bids out to cover the short. Managed to trim most of my position at 62 thus ensuring just a minor loss.
- Made some nice money on “Cars 2.” Not sure why there were traders who thought that film was going to gross under $60m.

- I have a 50 share short of Pawlenty from 19.9.
- I have a 535 share short of Herman Cain from 6.3.

RIP John Delaney

Very sad news about the passing of Intrade CEO John Delaney. Although I’ve had occasional differences with Intrade’s decisions over the years, John was always a stand-up businessman who put the customer first. I remember just 4 months ago I was waiting for a check from Intrade and it was going on 8 weeks. I emailed John and he replied within a couple hours and then Paypal’d me the money the next business day.

My condolences to his friends, family, and the Intrade team.

THOR Weekend Actual: $65,723,338

Only 2.6% off from the average projection! How’s that for the “wisdom of crowds?”

Hit the Bids

My old grad school colleague and market guru Mr. RF has a great one-liner about the close of any day in the market. “It’s just easier to hit the bids and go home.” I usually don’t trade the Daily Dow contracts on Intrade, but decided to dabble in the “Dow +50″ contract today. Things looked bleak for most of the afternoon and then 3:53 p.m. rolled around and the ‘ol “hit the bids” came out in full effect. #Winning

(The Dow closed up 46)