Money Metal Bets

It’s time for a game!

MMB — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 22:27:47 +0000

Q: Which two charts look remarkably familiar?
A: The Obama 2012 Pres contract chart and the Dow chart over the last week!

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

MMB — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 19:33:03 +0000

Harry Potter mania is abound!

I just wanted to get my prediction down on paper lest I nail the final number and want proof to show everyone.

While I think there is a decent chance Potter can take down The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4m set three years ago, I am going to officially predict $153.5m.

Friday midnights: $43.5m (as per Deadline.com)
Rest of Friday: $42m
Total Friday: $82.5m (new single day record)
Saturday: $40m
Sunday: $31m
Total: $153.5m

I have been mainly trading the $160m contract. Someone has consistently buying my high-priced asks. Like I said, I think there is a decent chance that Potter breaks TDK’s record, but certainly not a 75% chance, and even then I still have an extra $1.6m to play with. Anyways…stay tuned.

Update

MMB — Mon, 27 Jun 2011 15:09:29 +0000

Well, as per normal I let the blog die for a couple months. But I am going to try to keep it “hot and fresh” here from now through the Republican primaries early nest year. Here’s what I have been trading the last two months and here’s what’s currently in my portfolio…

- Made some decent money on “Green Lantern.”
- Lost a little bit on Anthony Weiner. Word to the wise…always cover if you’ve made 40 or 50 pts. I shorted his resignation contract at 60 when he was defiant at the first press conference, and could have covered at 10, but didn’t have any bids out to cover the short. Managed to trim most of my position at 62 thus ensuring just a minor loss.
- Made some nice money on “Cars 2.” Not sure why there were traders who thought that film was going to gross under $60m.

- I have a 50 share short of Pawlenty from 19.9.
- I have a 535 share short of Herman Cain from 6.3.

RIP John Delaney

MMB — Tue, 24 May 2011 17:14:33 +0000

Very sad news about the passing of Intrade CEO John Delaney. Although I’ve had occasional differences with Intrade’s decisions over the years, John was always a stand-up businessman who put the customer first. I remember just 4 months ago I was waiting for a check from Intrade and it was going on 8 weeks. I emailed John and he replied within a couple hours and then Paypal’d me the money the next business day.

My condolences to his friends, family, and the Intrade team.

THOR Weekend Actual: $65,723,338

MMB — Mon, 09 May 2011 20:14:19 +0000

Only 2.6% off from the average projection! How’s that for the “wisdom of crowds?”

Hit the Bids

MMB — Mon, 09 May 2011 20:10:30 +0000

My old grad school colleague and market guru Mr. RF has a great one-liner about the close of any day in the market. “It’s just easier to hit the bids and go home.” I usually don’t trade the Daily Dow contracts on Intrade, but decided to dabble in the “Dow +50″ contract today. Things looked bleak for most of the afternoon and then 3:53 p.m. rolled around and the ‘ol “hit the bids” came out in full effect. #Winning

(The Dow closed up 46)

THOR Analysis and Positions

MMB — Fri, 06 May 2011 19:05:13 +0000

THOR hits 3,900+ North American theaters today as the summer movie season “officially” kicks off (though I would argue FAST FIVE’s $86m haul last weekend was in fact the real start). THOR is a bit of question mark. At first glance it seems to play more towards the geeky fanboy crowd than it does towards middle America. I mean, did middle America have any idea who Thor was before advertisements starting hitting TV’s last month? I’m personally biased — I lived in Denmark for two years and Norse Mythology was an actual curriculum topic. So while I can tell you all about Asgard, Niflheim, and Ragnarok, my desire to see this film (high) is probably way higher than the average moviegoer. That being said, late signs such as $3.25m in midnights last night as well as some good groundswell buzz leads me to believe Thor can probably top $70m by the time Monday rolls around. As for my positions, Thor is the first movie in a couple weeks where I have little confidence in my projection number. As such I opted to go for value.

THOR $55m: -5 @ 85.0
THOR $60m: -6 @ 84.0

Do I think that THOR will make less than $60m this weekend? No, not really, but I didn’t think a lot of past shorts would pan out when in fact they did. The glory of getting 5.5:1 on your money is that you only have to be right 15% of the time in order to make cash.

I am little bitter that someone came in and shorted the $60m at 45.0 just recently. I definitely would have flipped the 6 shares for $24 gain but all of my standing buys (to cover my shorts) expired at Noon.

Thor Projections

MMB — Fri, 06 May 2011 03:46:49 +0000

As per normal I will disclose my “Thor” positions sometime tomorrow, but for now here are some leading industry projections…

BoxOffice.com – $68m
Rope of Silicon – $68m
Confidential – $63m
THR – $70m
The Derby – $73m
Box Office Guru – $72m
FilmGo – $72m
ComingSoon – $69m
ERC – unclear
Whisper Numbers – $68m
MTC – $62m
RS – $58m

Average: $67.5m

*Updated to reflect new and/or revised sources

Commodities Trainwreck (if you were long)

MMB — Thu, 05 May 2011 20:58:15 +0000

Hat tip to my good friend FP for his stellar gains in the market today shorting silver and oil. We all knew the bubble would burst eventually, but I don’t think anyone anticipated the level of carnage oil and silver saw today.

West Texas Intermediate closed under $100 for the first time since mid-March. The fall was also the largest daily percentage decline in oil since April 2009.

As such SCO, the double-inverse oil ETF was on fire, up more than 18%.

Silver also got absolutely crushed, leading to a dramatic 25% spike in ZSL, a 2x short silver ETF. ZSL is now up more than 80% in the last five trading days.

Man In the Arena

MMB — Wed, 04 May 2011 21:14:49 +0000

Maybe I’m bat$hit crazy, but to me this is still one of those most chill-inducing political ads ever made: