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Another Successful Weekend @ the Movies

At the risk of jinxing myself going forward, I’ve been on a bit of a tear recently in the Intrade movie markets. This weekend’s score was mostly due to my analysis and subsequent prediction that “American Reunion” would be massively front-loaded (front-loaded is when a movie makes a disproportionate portion of its weekend gross on Friday as compared to Saturday and Sunday). Conventional wisdom held that the film would have an internal multiplier (total weekend gross/Friday gross) of around 2.6, but my research of past R-rated movies to come out on Easter weekend showed that an internal multiplier of between 2.35 and 2.45 was more appropriate for projections. The Friday number for American Pie came in at $9.25m, and thus most sites thus projected out a weekend total of $24m ($9.25m x 2.6). However, using my alternate internal multiplier, I projected a low number of $21.7m and a high number of $22.7m for the film. These projections thus made the $22.5m and $25.0m contracts ideal shorts at prices between 75 and 87.5, and 20 and 30, respectively. So when the film’s actual weekend total of $21.5m came in, the result was a nice 4-dime payday.

For the record, in the end “American Reunion’s” internal multiplier was 2.32. I wanted to share my strategy in a Saturday post, but unfortunately there was too much free money sitting out there!

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