Contract of the Week

March 20, 2012 2 comments

Hunger Games!

Over/Under $120m opening weekend.

There’s been rampant speculation as to the opening weekend gross for the literary smash-hit “The Hunger Games.” The contract has traded between 35 and 80 in just the last few days. Deadline.com ran a story yesterday that industry insiders are speculating that Hunger Games’ opening weekend gross could push through $125m.

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Categories: Entertainment

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

July 15, 2011 Leave a comment

Harry Potter mania is abound!

I just wanted to get my prediction down on paper lest I nail the final number and want proof to show everyone.

While I think there is a decent chance Potter can take down The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4m set three years ago, I am going to officially predict $153.5m.

Friday midnights: $43.5m (as per Deadline.com)
Rest of Friday: $42m
Total Friday: $82.5m (new single day record)
Saturday: $40m
Sunday: $31m
Total: $153.5m

I have been mainly trading the $160m contract. Someone has consistently buying my high-priced asks. Like I said, I think there is a decent chance that Potter breaks TDK’s record, but certainly not a 75% chance, and even then I still have an extra $1.6m to play with. Anyways…stay tuned.

Update

June 27, 2011 Leave a comment

Well, as per normal I let the blog die for a couple months. But I am going to try to keep it “hot and fresh” here from now through the Republican primaries early nest year. Here’s what I have been trading the last two months and here’s what’s currently in my portfolio…

– Made some decent money on “Green Lantern.”
– Lost a little bit on Anthony Weiner. Word to the wise…always cover if you’ve made 40 or 50 pts. I shorted his resignation contract at 60 when he was defiant at the first press conference, and could have covered at 10, but didn’t have any bids out to cover the short. Managed to trim most of my position at 62 thus ensuring just a minor loss.
– Made some nice money on “Cars 2.” Not sure why there were traders who thought that film was going to gross under $60m.

– I have a 50 share short of Pawlenty from 19.9.
– I have a 535 share short of Herman Cain from 6.3.

Categories: Uncategorized

RIP John Delaney

May 24, 2011 1 comment

Very sad news about the passing of Intrade CEO John Delaney. Although I’ve had occasional differences with Intrade’s decisions over the years, John was always a stand-up businessman who put the customer first. I remember just 4 months ago I was waiting for a check from Intrade and it was going on 8 weeks. I emailed John and he replied within a couple hours and then Paypal’d me the money the next business day.

My condolences to his friends, family, and the Intrade team.

Categories: Uncategorized Tags: ,

THOR Weekend Actual: $65,723,338

May 9, 2011 Leave a comment

Only 2.6% off from the average projection! How’s that for the “wisdom of crowds?”

Hit the Bids

May 9, 2011 Leave a comment

My old grad school colleague and market guru Mr. RF has a great one-liner about the close of any day in the market. “It’s just easier to hit the bids and go home.” I usually don’t trade the Daily Dow contracts on Intrade, but decided to dabble in the “Dow +50” contract today. Things looked bleak for most of the afternoon and then 3:53 p.m. rolled around and the ‘ol “hit the bids” came out in full effect. #Winning

(The Dow closed up 46)

THOR Analysis and Positions

May 6, 2011 Leave a comment

THOR hits 3,900+ North American theaters today as the summer movie season “officially” kicks off (though I would argue FAST FIVE’s $86m haul last weekend was in fact the real start). THOR is a bit of question mark. At first glance it seems to play more towards the geeky fanboy crowd than it does towards middle America. I mean, did middle America have any idea who Thor was before advertisements starting hitting TV’s last month? I’m personally biased — I lived in Denmark for two years and Norse Mythology was an actual curriculum topic. So while I can tell you all about Asgard, Niflheim, and Ragnarok, my desire to see this film (high) is probably way higher than the average moviegoer. That being said, late signs such as $3.25m in midnights last night as well as some good groundswell buzz leads me to believe Thor can probably top $70m by the time Monday rolls around. As for my positions, Thor is the first movie in a couple weeks where I have little confidence in my projection number. As such I opted to go for value.

THOR $55m: -5 @ 85.0
THOR $60m: -6 @ 84.0

Do I think that THOR will make less than $60m this weekend? No, not really, but I didn’t think a lot of past shorts would pan out when in fact they did. The glory of getting 5.5:1 on your money is that you only have to be right 15% of the time in order to make cash.

I am little bitter that someone came in and shorted the $60m at 45.0 just recently. I definitely would have flipped the 6 shares for $24 gain but all of my standing buys (to cover my shorts) expired at Noon.