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Posts Tagged ‘Alice 3D’

Alice 3D Projection and Position

March 5, 2010 Leave a comment

I am running out the door here so can’t do a full post, but wanted to share my Alice 3D projection and positions. All of those estimates in the low $70m’s from the previous post are way too low. I am hearing a floor of $80m, and a chance of $90m, or *gasp* even $100m. I think Alice will be big, but I just don’t see it getting past $90m. I will officially project $87m. As for my Intrade positions…I was fortunate enough to get 5 shares of Alice $70m long at 20 (go check the time and sales data if you want) so that’s a free $40 right there. I am short 5 shares of $80m at 52.5, that’s probably going to be a loss. I am also short 8 shares of the $90m contract at 40. That’s probably a 60/40 proposition right now. Anyways, a little less volume than I usually have for an opening weekend, but I have so much capital tied up in the Oscars that I have to wait to see what happens there before playing big on movies though.

Edit1: Bought a little $70m. Covered a little of my $90m short for no loss. Midnights did $4.5m – $5.5m as per Notfabio on the HSX boards. I think this shows that $80m+ is locked in, but I still don’t think we’ll see 3-digits, no matter what Nikki Finke says.

Edit2: Well Alice decided to eat the box office this weekend. Wow. Probably $109m-$116m when it’s all said and done. Thankfully someone decided to sell me 15 of the $90m contracts at an avg price of 66.6 this morning. Thanks to whoever you are.

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Alice in Wonderland 3D

March 4, 2010 Leave a comment

I will have my official prediction tomorrow on the blog but wanted to give a quick glimpse of whatever everyone else is thinking…

Box Office Mojo “The Derby” average projection: $74.2m
Gitesh Pandya – Box Office Guru: $68m
The Hollywood Reporter: “$75m or more”
The Weekend Warrior: $74.3m
HSX Whisper Numbers: $75m

There has been hot and heavy action on the Intrade $80m contract, and I know of at least one very smart trader who is Long the $80m contract in size (and no, it’s not me). Again, check back tomorrow for my projection as well as a position disclosure.