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Posts Tagged ‘Box Office Projections’

Weekend Movies 4/13 – 4/15

April 13, 2012 Leave a comment

Greetings all…

I’ve been busier than normal at work this week and thus “zoned out” of the movie markets Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There are three new openers this week…”The Cabin in the Woods,” “Lockout” and “The Three Stooges.” I think that Lockout and Stooges have the potential to be absolute bombs. The PG-rating and short run time on Stooges might help inch the movie over the $12m mark, but I see little breakout potential for the film. I honestly have ZERO clue what Lockout is about, even after seeing three or four TV ads for the film. All I know is the Guy Pearce seems to have added a few inches to his biceps. As for my positions, I shorted some Cabin early in the week at high prices that I don’t expect to hit but hey, I’ll take 5:1 odds. I also shorted some Stooges. Will post a full p/l recap on Monday.

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Thor Projections

May 5, 2011 1 comment

As per normal I will disclose my “Thor” positions sometime tomorrow, but for now here are some leading industry projections…

BoxOffice.com – $68m
Rope of Silicon – $68m
Confidential – $63m
THR – $70m
The Derby – $73m
Box Office Guru – $72m
FilmGo – $72m
ComingSoon – $69m
ERC – unclear
Whisper Numbers – $68m
MTC – $62m
RS – $58m

Average: $67.5m

*Updated to reflect new and/or revised sources

Weekend Box Office: “Madea’s Big Happy Family” & “Water for Elephants”

April 22, 2011 1 comment

This weekend brings two new releases: Tyler Perry’s “Madea’s Big Happy Familly” and the Robert Pattinson/Reese Witherspoon flick “Water for Elephants”

“Madea” opens up in nearly 2,300 locations, a new high for a Tyler Perry movie. I expect the movie to sail past $20m and as such comfortably own the following positions on Intrade…
Madea $17.5m 30 @ 54.3
Madea $20.0m 10 @ 44.3

“Elephants” opens up in a respectable 2,800+ locations. While I don’t think the film will burn down the box office this weekend, I do think it should be able to claw past $14m. My Intrade positions are…
Elephants $10.0m 30 @ 55.0
Elephants $12.5m 5 @ 47.5

Bow Down to the King of the Intrade Movie Markets

April 18, 2011 Leave a comment

Well…I like to consider myself the King of the Movie Markets because

a) recently I seem to be the only person willing to put up non-predatory bids/asks
b) I’ve arguably made more money from movie contracts than any other trader in the last three years.

“Scream 4” and “Rio” both opened this past weekend. I didn’t touch “Scream 4” with a 10-foot pole due to the divergent RS and MTC forecasts mixed in with the insane Twitter counts (can we officially declare Twitter counts dead as an accurate predictor of box office numbers?) Rio looked like it was going to come in right in the $38 to $42m range. So I bought 3 shares of the $37.5m contract at 67.5 and held through the weekend. I bought 18 shares of the $37.5m contract at an average of 52.6. I flipped 2 shares at cost on Saturday after the crappy Friday number ($10.2m, which when you plug into a standard kiddie movie internal multiplier of 3.5’ish only projected out to about $35.7m). Finally, I purchased 20 shares of the $40m at 43.9. I wasn’t the biggest fan of this purchase, but liked getting 4/3 odds on a contract that I thought had a 50/50 shot of hitting. By Saturday morning the $40m looked like it had NO shot so I sold all 20 shares at an average of 24. Then along came Saturday matinees, which help Rio put up an absurd 69% increase from Saturday over Friday. The actuals just came out and the movie ended up falling short of $40m at $39.23m. So I am lucky I got out of the $40m contract and saved about $50 there. But wow wow wow Rio’s internal multiplier was an amazing 3.79, which might be some kind of record for a 3-day opening (going to have to go back and check the archives).

This week we have “Water for Elephants” and the latest “Madea” movie. I generally swear off betting “Madea” movies because I don’t understand the underlying factors related to the success or failure of cultural movies. “Water for Elephants” feels like $15m on its 2,700 screens. Maybe a touch more at the box office if the Team Edwards ‘tweens come out this weekend.

Alice 3D Projection and Position

March 5, 2010 Leave a comment

I am running out the door here so can’t do a full post, but wanted to share my Alice 3D projection and positions. All of those estimates in the low $70m’s from the previous post are way too low. I am hearing a floor of $80m, and a chance of $90m, or *gasp* even $100m. I think Alice will be big, but I just don’t see it getting past $90m. I will officially project $87m. As for my Intrade positions…I was fortunate enough to get 5 shares of Alice $70m long at 20 (go check the time and sales data if you want) so that’s a free $40 right there. I am short 5 shares of $80m at 52.5, that’s probably going to be a loss. I am also short 8 shares of the $90m contract at 40. That’s probably a 60/40 proposition right now. Anyways, a little less volume than I usually have for an opening weekend, but I have so much capital tied up in the Oscars that I have to wait to see what happens there before playing big on movies though.

Edit1: Bought a little $70m. Covered a little of my $90m short for no loss. Midnights did $4.5m – $5.5m as per Notfabio on the HSX boards. I think this shows that $80m+ is locked in, but I still don’t think we’ll see 3-digits, no matter what Nikki Finke says.

Edit2: Well Alice decided to eat the box office this weekend. Wow. Probably $109m-$116m when it’s all said and done. Thankfully someone decided to sell me 15 of the $90m contracts at an avg price of 66.6 this morning. Thanks to whoever you are.

Alice in Wonderland 3D

March 4, 2010 Leave a comment

I will have my official prediction tomorrow on the blog but wanted to give a quick glimpse of whatever everyone else is thinking…

Box Office Mojo “The Derby” average projection: $74.2m
Gitesh Pandya – Box Office Guru: $68m
The Hollywood Reporter: “$75m or more”
The Weekend Warrior: $74.3m
HSX Whisper Numbers: $75m

There has been hot and heavy action on the Intrade $80m contract, and I know of at least one very smart trader who is Long the $80m contract in size (and no, it’s not me). Again, check back tomorrow for my projection as well as a position disclosure.