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What’s Next?

March 8, 2010 1 comment

The 2010 Academy Awards have officially come and gone, and the Intrade contracts were a smashing success from a volume perspective. I stopped trading the Best Picture contracts about 15 minutes before the Best Picture announcement last night (and wow that was the quickest Oscar announcement I’ve ever seen), but I think both the “Avatar” and “Hurt Locker” contracts did over 10k shares each.

So with the conclusion of the high-volume Oscars, the logical question is “what’s next?” on Intrade and other betting exchanges. I generally like to trade contracts with a short to medium time horizon (expiry within three months), so that’s what my focus is in this post.

The ObamaCare contracts have been fairly hot lately, with volume approaching the magic 10k mark on the June expiry contract. Personally, I’ve never traded a single share of this particular contract (I shorted the public option contracts in size several months back), but there have been several inflection points and certainly there will be several more before it’s all said and done. This Eric Massa/Rahm Emmanuel tiff could end up being a harbinger of future problems for ObamaCare.

Another set of contracts to keep an eye on are the Tiger Woods contracts. If you read this blog, you’ll know that these contracts are near and dear to my heart. I’ll have an update post on the Tiger situation later this week, but the longs have had these contracts by the teeth for the past week, so those with a short preference might find a good entry point here in the next couple days.

If the box office is your cup of tea there are actually four new movies coming out this weekend, and I see that Intrade has contracts up for all four and *gasp* there are actually competitive spreads on some of the contracts.

There are of course the myriad of different political contracts on Intrade. Most of these have longer time horizons, however there are a couple hot political contracts right now with shorter time horizons. The David Patterson resignation contract definitely comes to mind, as does the March Obama approval contracts.

Good trading to all this week.