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Posts Tagged ‘Harry Potter’

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

July 15, 2011 Leave a comment

Harry Potter mania is abound!

I just wanted to get my prediction down on paper lest I nail the final number and want proof to show everyone.

While I think there is a decent chance Potter can take down The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4m set three years ago, I am going to officially predict $153.5m.

Friday midnights: $43.5m (as per Deadline.com)
Rest of Friday: $42m
Total Friday: $82.5m (new single day record)
Saturday: $40m
Sunday: $31m
Total: $153.5m

I have been mainly trading the $160m contract. Someone has consistently buying my high-priced asks. Like I said, I think there is a decent chance that Potter breaks TDK’s record, but certainly not a 75% chance, and even then I still have an extra $1.6m to play with. Anyways…stay tuned.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1

November 18, 2010 1 comment

Hey!

Guess who’s back…back again…

I figured it was finally time to start posting again after a near six-month hiatus, and what better topic to post about than betting on the box office! “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” opens in about six hours here on the East Coast. Nikki Finke, THR, Fandango and numerous other outlets are already reporting massive pre-sale numbers for the midnight showings. Some theaters are already adding 3:00am showings in order to cope with the demand. It’s possible that HP7 will make a run at the all time midnight record of approximately $30 million set last year by “Twilight: Eclipse.”

So how much will HP7 gross at the box office this weekend? Comparisons to prior films are somewhat difficult as HP5 and HP6 both had five-day opening weekends. The best comparison film is “Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire,” which opened in November 2005 for a three-day weekend. That film grossed $102.7 million in 3,858 theaters. For this projection I am going to use a theater expansion inflater and a ticket price inflater. HP7 is debuting in 4,125 theaters, an increase of 6.9% over HP4. However, just because the movie is playing in 6.9% more theaters doesn’t automatically mean the gross will increase by 6.9%. I generally increase a projection by 2/3rds of the theater increase percentage. So for HP7, with a base of $102.7 million (HP4), I’ll increase my HP7 projection to $107.4 million. For ticket prices, in 2005 the average ticket price was approximately $6.41. This year, Box Office Mojo estimates the average ticket price will be $7.95. This is an increase of 24%. It should be noted that HP7 is NOT a 3D film, which would normally lead me to tack on an extra 5% to 10% on to the ticket price increase percentage. So, with a ticket price increase percentage of 24%, my projection for HP7 rises to $133.2m. Now, the ticker price inflater is somewhat inexact and uses an estimate for the average 2010 ticket price. Thus I’ll use a 3% down/up spread and project that “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1” will gross somewhere between $129.2 million and $137.2 million. If you held a gun to me though I’d say that HP7 has a decent chance at taking down “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” ($135.6 million) to become the 4th-highest all time opening weekend.

Despite aggressively bidding on the HP7 $105m, $110m, $115m, $120m, $125m, $130m contracts I was only able to come away with the following positions:

$115m contract – 20 shares at 40.0
$125m contract – 5 shares at 46.0
$130m contract – 2 shares at 36.0