Posts Tagged ‘Intrade’

Movies Wasteland

April 28, 2012 Leave a comment

The last weekend in April is generally regarded as a dumping ground for movies that studios are unsure about with regards to box office success. Not surprisingly, there are four openers this weekend, and at this point it looks like all four are going to miss their expected box office number. The Five-Year Engagement looks to be the most disastrous of the four, projecting out to $10m-$11m at this point (most columns had it raking in $15m-$20m this weekend). Overall this point, it looks like 30 of the 33 Intrade movie strikes will expire at 0.

I was slammed at work this week and thus only managed a medium-sized short on Raven at $11m, $12m, $13m, and $14m. Still an easy $100.


Movies Movies Movies

April 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Missed last weekend, hit this weekend.

Categories: Entertainment Tags: , ,

Another Successful Weekend @ the Movies

April 9, 2012 Leave a comment

At the risk of jinxing myself going forward, I’ve been on a bit of a tear recently in the Intrade movie markets. This weekend’s score was mostly due to my analysis and subsequent prediction that “American Reunion” would be massively front-loaded (front-loaded is when a movie makes a disproportionate portion of its weekend gross on Friday as compared to Saturday and Sunday). Conventional wisdom held that the film would have an internal multiplier (total weekend gross/Friday gross) of around 2.6, but my research of past R-rated movies to come out on Easter weekend showed that an internal multiplier of between 2.35 and 2.45 was more appropriate for projections. The Friday number for American Pie came in at $9.25m, and thus most sites thus projected out a weekend total of $24m ($9.25m x 2.6). However, using my alternate internal multiplier, I projected a low number of $21.7m and a high number of $22.7m for the film. These projections thus made the $22.5m and $25.0m contracts ideal shorts at prices between 75 and 87.5, and 20 and 30, respectively. So when the film’s actual weekend total of $21.5m came in, the result was a nice 4-dime payday.

For the record, in the end “American Reunion’s” internal multiplier was 2.32. I wanted to share my strategy in a Saturday post, but unfortunately there was too much free money sitting out there!

RIP John Delaney

May 24, 2011 1 comment

Very sad news about the passing of Intrade CEO John Delaney. Although I’ve had occasional differences with Intrade’s decisions over the years, John was always a stand-up businessman who put the customer first. I remember just 4 months ago I was waiting for a check from Intrade and it was going on 8 weeks. I emailed John and he replied within a couple hours and then Paypal’d me the money the next business day.

My condolences to his friends, family, and the Intrade team.

Categories: Uncategorized Tags: ,

Hit the Bids

May 9, 2011 Leave a comment

My old grad school colleague and market guru Mr. RF has a great one-liner about the close of any day in the market. “It’s just easier to hit the bids and go home.” I usually don’t trade the Daily Dow contracts on Intrade, but decided to dabble in the “Dow +50” contract today. Things looked bleak for most of the afternoon and then 3:53 p.m. rolled around and the ‘ol “hit the bids” came out in full effect. #Winning

(The Dow closed up 46)

THOR Analysis and Positions

May 6, 2011 Leave a comment

THOR hits 3,900+ North American theaters today as the summer movie season “officially” kicks off (though I would argue FAST FIVE’s $86m haul last weekend was in fact the real start). THOR is a bit of question mark. At first glance it seems to play more towards the geeky fanboy crowd than it does towards middle America. I mean, did middle America have any idea who Thor was before advertisements starting hitting TV’s last month? I’m personally biased — I lived in Denmark for two years and Norse Mythology was an actual curriculum topic. So while I can tell you all about Asgard, Niflheim, and Ragnarok, my desire to see this film (high) is probably way higher than the average moviegoer. That being said, late signs such as $3.25m in midnights last night as well as some good groundswell buzz leads me to believe Thor can probably top $70m by the time Monday rolls around. As for my positions, Thor is the first movie in a couple weeks where I have little confidence in my projection number. As such I opted to go for value.

THOR $55m: -5 @ 85.0
THOR $60m: -6 @ 84.0

Do I think that THOR will make less than $60m this weekend? No, not really, but I didn’t think a lot of past shorts would pan out when in fact they did. The glory of getting 5.5:1 on your money is that you only have to be right 15% of the time in order to make cash.

I am little bitter that someone came in and shorted the $60m at 45.0 just recently. I definitely would have flipped the 6 shares for $24 gain but all of my standing buys (to cover my shorts) expired at Noon.

Bin Laden

May 4, 2011 Leave a comment

Now that I am confident that Intrade isn’t going to reverse any trades (you can never be too sure after the Hosni Mubarak contract debacle) I will post this…

Background story will be posted soon.