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Movies Movies Movies

April 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Missed last weekend, hit this weekend.

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Categories: Entertainment Tags: , ,

Hunger Games Intrade Prices Exploding

March 22, 2012 Leave a comment

Prices on most of “The Hunger Games” contracts exploded in early evening trading…

The frantic action was most likely based off this tweet by “Box Office Guru” Gitesh Pandya

The Hunger Games Opening Weekend

March 22, 2012 Leave a comment

“The Hunger Games” is set to invade the box office this weekend at 4,137 theaters (including 268 IMAX locations). Early tracking numbers three weeks ago projected Hunger Games as a $75m+ opener, quite an accomplishment for a non-sequel March opener. Since then the buzz surrounding the film’s opener has exploded and now industry insiders speculate that the movie may smash both the March and non-sequel opening weekend record (both held by “Alice in Wonderland” – $116.1m) and gross as much as $140m this weekend.

Taking a look at prominent box office projection sites and columnists (I will continue to update this list)…

The Weekend Warrior – $121.5m
BoxOffice.com – $125m
FilmGo – $148m
Movie Critic Assassins – $133m
Box Office Guru (Gitesh Pandya) – $125m
World of KJ – $120m-$130m

I plan to see what the midnight numbers are for the film tonight before posting a final projection. I’m currently trying to short the $130m, $135m, and $140m contracts on Intrade.

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2

July 15, 2011 Leave a comment

Harry Potter mania is abound!

I just wanted to get my prediction down on paper lest I nail the final number and want proof to show everyone.

While I think there is a decent chance Potter can take down The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record of $158.4m set three years ago, I am going to officially predict $153.5m.

Friday midnights: $43.5m (as per Deadline.com)
Rest of Friday: $42m
Total Friday: $82.5m (new single day record)
Saturday: $40m
Sunday: $31m
Total: $153.5m

I have been mainly trading the $160m contract. Someone has consistently buying my high-priced asks. Like I said, I think there is a decent chance that Potter breaks TDK’s record, but certainly not a 75% chance, and even then I still have an extra $1.6m to play with. Anyways…stay tuned.

THOR Weekend Actual: $65,723,338

May 9, 2011 Leave a comment

Only 2.6% off from the average projection! How’s that for the “wisdom of crowds?”

Fast Five Positions

April 29, 2011 Leave a comment

Heading out the door so I’m just going to post my “Fast Five” positions. I pegged the weekend box office floor for this movie at $70m, hence I traded only those contracts at or below that level.

Fast Five $55m – 15 @ 67.0
Fast Five $60m – 30 @ 58.5
Fast Five $65m – 5 @ 52.5
Fast Five $70m – 5 @ 40.0

UPDATE – Saturday 2am
Always nice to win everything before the weekend’s really even started…

Weekend Box Office: “Madea’s Big Happy Family” & “Water for Elephants”

April 22, 2011 1 comment

This weekend brings two new releases: Tyler Perry’s “Madea’s Big Happy Familly” and the Robert Pattinson/Reese Witherspoon flick “Water for Elephants”

“Madea” opens up in nearly 2,300 locations, a new high for a Tyler Perry movie. I expect the movie to sail past $20m and as such comfortably own the following positions on Intrade…
Madea $17.5m 30 @ 54.3
Madea $20.0m 10 @ 44.3

“Elephants” opens up in a respectable 2,800+ locations. While I don’t think the film will burn down the box office this weekend, I do think it should be able to claw past $14m. My Intrade positions are…
Elephants $10.0m 30 @ 55.0
Elephants $12.5m 5 @ 47.5