Archive

Posts Tagged ‘MTC’

Thor Projections

May 5, 2011 1 comment

As per normal I will disclose my “Thor” positions sometime tomorrow, but for now here are some leading industry projections…

BoxOffice.com – $68m
Rope of Silicon – $68m
Confidential – $63m
THR – $70m
The Derby – $73m
Box Office Guru – $72m
FilmGo – $72m
ComingSoon – $69m
ERC – unclear
Whisper Numbers – $68m
MTC – $62m
RS – $58m

Average: $67.5m

*Updated to reflect new and/or revised sources

Bow Down to the King of the Intrade Movie Markets

April 18, 2011 Leave a comment

Well…I like to consider myself the King of the Movie Markets because

a) recently I seem to be the only person willing to put up non-predatory bids/asks
b) I’ve arguably made more money from movie contracts than any other trader in the last three years.

“Scream 4” and “Rio” both opened this past weekend. I didn’t touch “Scream 4” with a 10-foot pole due to the divergent RS and MTC forecasts mixed in with the insane Twitter counts (can we officially declare Twitter counts dead as an accurate predictor of box office numbers?) Rio looked like it was going to come in right in the $38 to $42m range. So I bought 3 shares of the $37.5m contract at 67.5 and held through the weekend. I bought 18 shares of the $37.5m contract at an average of 52.6. I flipped 2 shares at cost on Saturday after the crappy Friday number ($10.2m, which when you plug into a standard kiddie movie internal multiplier of 3.5’ish only projected out to about $35.7m). Finally, I purchased 20 shares of the $40m at 43.9. I wasn’t the biggest fan of this purchase, but liked getting 4/3 odds on a contract that I thought had a 50/50 shot of hitting. By Saturday morning the $40m looked like it had NO shot so I sold all 20 shares at an average of 24. Then along came Saturday matinees, which help Rio put up an absurd 69% increase from Saturday over Friday. The actuals just came out and the movie ended up falling short of $40m at $39.23m. So I am lucky I got out of the $40m contract and saved about $50 there. But wow wow wow Rio’s internal multiplier was an amazing 3.79, which might be some kind of record for a 3-day opening (going to have to go back and check the archives).

This week we have “Water for Elephants” and the latest “Madea” movie. I generally swear off betting “Madea” movies because I don’t understand the underlying factors related to the success or failure of cultural movies. “Water for Elephants” feels like $15m on its 2,700 screens. Maybe a touch more at the box office if the Team Edwards ‘tweens come out this weekend.