Archive

Posts Tagged ‘politics’

Obama Approval Ratings

February 3, 2009 Leave a comment

Right now Intrade.com (politics – presidential job approval) has contracts up for President Obama’s  approval rating at the end of March, June, September and December 2009.  The contracts cover approval ratings from 30%+ on up to 80%+.  The contracts use the Real Clear Politics “President Obama Job Approval” polling data which can be found at www.realclearpolitics.com/polls

For historical perspective, as the graph below shows, George W. Bush had sustained approval ratings over 55% for the first 8 months of his term.  His approval rating of course shot up past 80% in the weeks and months after 9/11.  Barack Obama was elected with a substantially higher proportion of the popular vote (54% versus Bush’s 50%) and thus came into office with a substantial higher approval rating.  Obama’s RCP 1/21 – 1/29 approval rating average was hovering around 62% at the time of this post.  With the already dismal economic climate offering little negative impact on Obama’s approval rating, there is little reason to think Obama’s average will dip below 55% in the coming months.  In fact, as you may notice, Obama’s disapproval rating is only 19%, which suggests that 15-20% of the public has yet to crystallize an opinion of our 44th president.  As the weeks and months go by, both Obama’s approval and disapproval absolute numbers should increase as people form an opinion of President Obama.

Thus I see a buy opportunity for the March ’09 and June ’09 for all approval ratings at or below 55%.  The Obama March ’09 60%+ approval contract is currently priced at 60.0 and there is definitely some value there.  Again, if you assume the 20% “undecided” bunch splits 10% approve, 5% disapprove, 5% still undecided, Obama’s new approval number would be closer to 70% (but my conservative guess would be more towards 65%).  Barring a national security crisis, there is little reason to suspect Obama’s approval rating to go past 70%.

bushapproval1

Advertisements