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Weekend Estimates

April 24, 2011 Leave a comment

Easter weekend estimates are in for the two wide-release openers: “Water for Elephants” and “Madea’s Big Happy Family.”

Box Office Mojo projects “Madea” made $25.75m, while “Elephants” did an estimated $17.5m for the 3-day frame.

I am confident that all of my positions will expire at 100.

Next weekend brings “Fast Five,” the fifth installment of the popular Fast and Furious franchise. “Fast and Furious,” the film’s fourth installment debuted to a stellar $71m on the first weekend of April 2009. Though tracking data is not out yet, I’ve seen projections ranging from $60m all the way up to $100m on some of the more popular box office forums. Just quickly and off-the-cuff, I see little reason to think “Fast Five” won’t surpass the $71m that “Fast and Furious” did two years ago. After next weekend we officially enter the “summer movie season” when “Thor” invades theaters on May 6th.

Weekend Box Office: “Madea’s Big Happy Family” & “Water for Elephants”

April 22, 2011 1 comment

This weekend brings two new releases: Tyler Perry’s “Madea’s Big Happy Familly” and the Robert Pattinson/Reese Witherspoon flick “Water for Elephants”

“Madea” opens up in nearly 2,300 locations, a new high for a Tyler Perry movie. I expect the movie to sail past $20m and as such comfortably own the following positions on Intrade…
Madea $17.5m 30 @ 54.3
Madea $20.0m 10 @ 44.3

“Elephants” opens up in a respectable 2,800+ locations. While I don’t think the film will burn down the box office this weekend, I do think it should be able to claw past $14m. My Intrade positions are…
Elephants $10.0m 30 @ 55.0
Elephants $12.5m 5 @ 47.5