Quick Takes

I have not been doing much trading lately. Just building a couple movie positions that I will keep close to the vest until their release weeks. But let’s take a quick look at some of the “hot contracts” on the exchange right now.

American Idol Winner – Crystal Bowersox’s price has steadily fallen from the low 60’s all the way down to the high teens in recent weeks. At the same time Lee DeWyze has rocketed up past 80. I follow the show casually and it looks like DeWyze has the title locked up. Simon predicted he would win, and DialIdol.com is predicting a Lee blowout. If I had to pick any two sources to run with those two would be it.

LeBron James – I was real happy to see Intrade get this contract up as quick as they did. This is where the company can garner some good press. Let’s face it, gasoline contracts are compelling to about 3% of the population, whereas there are millions of sports fans eager for any kind of LeBron news or tidbits. The “LeBron Cavs” contract has traded in a tight range. My gut says he bounces, but I am not willing to short the contract at 36. If the Cavs go out and hire a legit coach like Pat Riley, the price should spike 8 or 10 points.

Kentucky U.S. Senate – Rand Paul won last week’s Republican primary then preceded to grab one of the 3rd rails of American politics (civil rights) with both hands, sending his price from 75 down to the high 50’s. I’ve actually been to Kentucky a few times in the last couple years and don’t get me wrong they’re good people down there. But Rand Paul could say even more outlandish stuff regarding civil rights and I doubt most of the voters of the state would bat an eyelash. I’d really be shocked if he doesn’t win this race in November.

Sarah Palin Presidential Run – I have blogged about this contract numerous times in the past. The price got up past 60 in the last couple weeks as Obama continues to take heat on the BP debacle, and Palin dropped a couple nuggets about November. Ultimately I don’t think she has made up her mind, but the longer Obama’s approval sits in the 40’s (while there is concurrently a lack of a Republican front-runner for 2012), the longer she will continue to trade in the 55 to 65 range.