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Posts Tagged ‘Thor’

THOR Weekend Actual: $65,723,338

May 9, 2011 Leave a comment

Only 2.6% off from the average projection! How’s that for the “wisdom of crowds?”

THOR Analysis and Positions

May 6, 2011 Leave a comment

THOR hits 3,900+ North American theaters today as the summer movie season “officially” kicks off (though I would argue FAST FIVE’s $86m haul last weekend was in fact the real start). THOR is a bit of question mark. At first glance it seems to play more towards the geeky fanboy crowd than it does towards middle America. I mean, did middle America have any idea who Thor was before advertisements starting hitting TV’s last month? I’m personally biased — I lived in Denmark for two years and Norse Mythology was an actual curriculum topic. So while I can tell you all about Asgard, Niflheim, and Ragnarok, my desire to see this film (high) is probably way higher than the average moviegoer. That being said, late signs such as $3.25m in midnights last night as well as some good groundswell buzz leads me to believe Thor can probably top $70m by the time Monday rolls around. As for my positions, Thor is the first movie in a couple weeks where I have little confidence in my projection number. As such I opted to go for value.

THOR $55m: -5 @ 85.0
THOR $60m: -6 @ 84.0

Do I think that THOR will make less than $60m this weekend? No, not really, but I didn’t think a lot of past shorts would pan out when in fact they did. The glory of getting 5.5:1 on your money is that you only have to be right 15% of the time in order to make cash.

I am little bitter that someone came in and shorted the $60m at 45.0 just recently. I definitely would have flipped the 6 shares for $24 gain but all of my standing buys (to cover my shorts) expired at Noon.

Thor Projections

May 5, 2011 1 comment

As per normal I will disclose my “Thor” positions sometime tomorrow, but for now here are some leading industry projections…

BoxOffice.com – $68m
Rope of Silicon – $68m
Confidential – $63m
THR – $70m
The Derby – $73m
Box Office Guru – $72m
FilmGo – $72m
ComingSoon – $69m
ERC – unclear
Whisper Numbers – $68m
MTC – $62m
RS – $58m

Average: $67.5m

*Updated to reflect new and/or revised sources

Weekend Estimates

April 24, 2011 Leave a comment

Easter weekend estimates are in for the two wide-release openers: “Water for Elephants” and “Madea’s Big Happy Family.”

Box Office Mojo projects “Madea” made $25.75m, while “Elephants” did an estimated $17.5m for the 3-day frame.

I am confident that all of my positions will expire at 100.

Next weekend brings “Fast Five,” the fifth installment of the popular Fast and Furious franchise. “Fast and Furious,” the film’s fourth installment debuted to a stellar $71m on the first weekend of April 2009. Though tracking data is not out yet, I’ve seen projections ranging from $60m all the way up to $100m on some of the more popular box office forums. Just quickly and off-the-cuff, I see little reason to think “Fast Five” won’t surpass the $71m that “Fast and Furious” did two years ago. After next weekend we officially enter the “summer movie season” when “Thor” invades theaters on May 6th.