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Tiger Dominoes

March 1, 2010 2 comments

I noted a few days ago that I thought there was now little or no chance for Tiger to play the Masters in August and that I had dumped all of my March and April. Well either through sheer coincidence or my warning (most likely the former) the March and April Tiger return contracts cratered on Intrade about 12 hours later to 15.0 and 30.0 respectively. The rationale behind my new prediction that Tiger will not be back for some time takes into account a series of “Tiger dominoes.”

1. Conventional wisdom thought that Tiger was going back to Mississippi for a week of outpatient sexual addiction rehab at the same facility where he did his recent six week inpatient stint. Instead Tiger went to Arizona and reportedly admitted himself to The Meadows treatment facility. There is speculation that this rehab stint is for an addiction to the prescription drugs Vicodin and Ambien. There have been no Tiger sightings since he arrived in Arizona more than a week ago, so we have to assume that Tiger is still at The Meadows, the therapy may be inpatient and may last for an extended period of time.

2. So with Tiger still in therapy we can virtually rule out a March return to golf. I mentioned two weeks ago that the late March Tavistock Cup/Bay Hill Tournament would be an excellent set up for Tiger to return and tune up for the Masters. But Tavistock is only three weeks away and if we believe reports, Tiger hasn’t played a hole of golf since November. The man is a perfectionist; he’s not going to cut corners and come back rusty and embarrass himself.

3. So with no March tune up for the Masters, Tiger will not play the Masters. Again, the Masters now is only five weeks away. Tiger hasn’t played a hole in more than three months. And he certainly wouldn’t use the Shell Houston Open in early April as a Masters tune up.

4. If Tiger isn’t playing the Masters, it makes virtually no sense for him to return at any of the three podunk tournaments played during the rest of April. So now we are in May.

5. May is somewhat interesting…The Players Championship is the first full week of May and is played at TPC Sawgrass which is the PGA headquarters and close to Tiger’s Orlando compound. So you could make a decent case that from a security and media standpoint it would make sense for Woods to return here. But that tournament is still only two months away.

6. Most people speculate that if Tiger skips the Masters as predicted, he will instead shoot for a June return at the U.S. Open in Pebble Beach. He could use the Memorial two weeks prior (Nicklaus’ tourney) as a tune up and then make the grand return to Major Championship golf on June 17th.

If you follow the Tiger dominoes you can see that a March, April or May return to golf seems increasingly unlikely. If you have the moxie to short the March contract at 15.0, it makes even more sense to short May at 45.0. Right now I have a medium short on the May contract. But I refuse to long any Tiger contract until more concrete information is made available to all of us.

Edit 1: I covered my May Tiger short around 11am Tuesday shortly after the Tiger Woods AP story came out. This was the concrete information I was waiting for as referenced above. I also initiated medium longs in the April and May contracts.

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