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Posts Tagged ‘Tiger Woods’

Tim Finchem’s Fake Out

March 15, 2010 Leave a comment

PGA Commissioner had a nice Tiger fake out today. Word leaked last night that Finchem scheduled a press conference for Monday afternoon. At least part of the population figured it would be to announce Tiger’s return to the tour. Fat chance. Finchem loves to have a nice Monday pressor whenever he inks a new sponsorship deal for the tour. And that’s exactly what the topic of today’s press conference was. I threw out some asks on the March Tiger return contract last night hoping someone might buy the news, but no takers.

I strongly recommend that traders do not put in any “good til cancelled” bids or asks on the March Tiger return contract. I had a 40 share bid out at 70 on Thursday morning after the NY Post article came out saying Tiger was planning to return at Bay Hill. I very nearly got into a car accident racing home to cancel it after the FoxNews and AP stories hit the wire the same day saying Tiger was in fact planning to return at the Masters in April. If you want to put a bid or ask out on that contract, I advise you do it from 6pm to midnight. There’s an extremely low likelihood that the Tiger return announcement will happen in the evening. Even if a reporter writes a story ala the NY Post story, those stories generally post to the web between 3am and 6am, so as long as you kill the order before bedtime you should be safe. As noted in a previous post, I sold all of my March return contract (purchased at an average price of 32) between 75 and 96 on Thursday.

My head says that Tiger will return at the Masters, but I have this little inkling that he could have a “soft return” at Tavistock because that “doesn’t really count” as a golf tournament (but remember it does for Intrade expiry purposes). If stories start coming out on Thursday or Friday about a giant security net coming down in Isleworth then Tiger at Tavistock is a definite possibility. Also recall that the Bay Hill deadline is Friday at 5pm, but PGA commissioner Tim Fenchem has suggested to the media several times in the past week that were Tiger to play Bay Hill, the PGA Tour expects he would give more advance notice than an announcement on Friday afternoon. It is now Monday evening, so we’re really running out of time on the March return contract. If there is no Bay Hill announcement, I expect the contract to go to around 10 this weekend, and then if Tiger doesn’t magically show up at Tavistock on Monday morning, it will go to zero at that point.

The Tiger Mystery

March 12, 2010 1 comment

Well the Tiger Woods mystery is now a national obsession. I honestly don’t know when the hell he is going to return, and have been trading based off where I expect the price to go, not when I actually think Tiger will return. I was fortunate enough to sell a lot of my March contracts in the 90s yesterday after the NY Post article came out in the morning saying Woods would play Bay Hill. I then dumped the rest of my March at 75 and 84 right as the AP and FoxNews.com report was coming out that said Woods return at the Masters. Now ESPN is saying Tiger hasn’t decided when he’s coming back.

Trade cautiously. I think at worse Woods will be back for the Masters, but the March contract is totally radioactive.

Hank Haney

March 9, 2010 1 comment

Hank Haney is Tiger’s personal swing coach and an integral part of any Tiger Woods comeback. I read last week on an undisclosed blog that Haney was making preparations to go down to Orlando to work with Tiger, and thus I began aggressively accumulating Tiger March and April return contracts on Intrade. Now that the cat is out of the bag and mainstream media outlets are running the story, I can say that Haney working with Woods is one of the best signals yet that Tiger will return for a tune-up event in March and then play the Masters next month. Basically, the only thing left is the official announcement of where and when Tiger will return. I am sticking to my theory that Tiger will play the Tavistock Cup on 3/22 and 3/23, then the Bay Hill Invitational 3/25 to 3/28, and that the announcement will happen in the next ten days.

What’s Next?

March 8, 2010 1 comment

The 2010 Academy Awards have officially come and gone, and the Intrade contracts were a smashing success from a volume perspective. I stopped trading the Best Picture contracts about 15 minutes before the Best Picture announcement last night (and wow that was the quickest Oscar announcement I’ve ever seen), but I think both the “Avatar” and “Hurt Locker” contracts did over 10k shares each.

So with the conclusion of the high-volume Oscars, the logical question is “what’s next?” on Intrade and other betting exchanges. I generally like to trade contracts with a short to medium time horizon (expiry within three months), so that’s what my focus is in this post.

The ObamaCare contracts have been fairly hot lately, with volume approaching the magic 10k mark on the June expiry contract. Personally, I’ve never traded a single share of this particular contract (I shorted the public option contracts in size several months back), but there have been several inflection points and certainly there will be several more before it’s all said and done. This Eric Massa/Rahm Emmanuel tiff could end up being a harbinger of future problems for ObamaCare.

Another set of contracts to keep an eye on are the Tiger Woods contracts. If you read this blog, you’ll know that these contracts are near and dear to my heart. I’ll have an update post on the Tiger situation later this week, but the longs have had these contracts by the teeth for the past week, so those with a short preference might find a good entry point here in the next couple days.

If the box office is your cup of tea there are actually four new movies coming out this weekend, and I see that Intrade has contracts up for all four and *gasp* there are actually competitive spreads on some of the contracts.

There are of course the myriad of different political contracts on Intrade. Most of these have longer time horizons, however there are a couple hot political contracts right now with shorter time horizons. The David Patterson resignation contract definitely comes to mind, as does the March Obama approval contracts.

Good trading to all this week.

Moving On

March 5, 2010 4 comments

This is why 95% of the public will forget about the last 3.5 months as soon as Tiger steps on to the course…2009 Bay Hill 72nd hole

Possible Big Tiger Clue

March 4, 2010 8 comments

This could be a BIG Tiger clue…it’s Radar Online so I won’t truly believe it until a verified news source reports the information, but Elin Woods has reportedly moved back home with Tiger. As I noted in the post below, I thought there was only one thing stopping Tiger from a March return to golf, and that was his wife Elin. So if this news is true, it represents a huge development in their marriage, and thus a huge green light for Tiger to get back on the course.

Tiger Watch

March 4, 2010 Leave a comment

Just a quick update on the Tiger watch. Woods was out on the range again today at Isleworth honing his game. This is the fourth straight day Woods has been on the course. Meanwhile over on Intrade the April return contract is all the way up to 70, but the March contract is lagging behind at 28. As I have said many times, the price of the March contract should trade at a discount to the April contract, but not that high of a discount. If you really think that there is a 70% chance Woods plays the Masters, then the March contract should be closer to 45%. Perhaps traders are scared off by the narrow time frame of a potential return. It’s now Thursday, March 4th. That Tavistock Cup tees off on 3/22 and Bay Hill starts on 3/25. With regards to deadlines, Tavistock media rep Krista Zilizi is on record as saying the rosters for the 10 vs. 10 challenge will be released in “mid-March.” Thus it stands to reason that we should find out whether Tiger is playing Tavistock by Friday, March 19th at the latest. Ironically, 3/19 (5pm to be precise) is also the deadline to enter the Bay Hill Invitational.

So here is how I see the Tiger contracts playing out. Barring an announcement by the Woods camp in the next ten days, I think the April return contract will trade in the 60 to 75 range. If Tiger doesn’t play either Tavistock or Bay Hill, the contract will likely drop by half, but still hold some value as it is not out of the realm of possibility that Woods decides to come into Augusta cold. (Some will point to the Shell Houston Open scheduled for the first week of April. See my previous posts for a more detailed explanation, but it makes little sense for Woods to play the Houston Open as a return tourney when MUCH more attractive options exist in Tavistock and Bay Hill). The March contract is a more volatile bird. Aside from a couple 20-share blocks, the Asks have mostly cleared out, not wanting to get picked off in the event of a sudden announcement from Team Tiger of a March return date. While some might think that in the absence of new information the March contract price will slowly drop (time decay as we move through March), I anticipate it will hold its value and perhaps edge up if we continue to see Woods out on the Isleworth course. The week of 3/14 to 3/20 is THE week when it comes to the March return contract (and to a medium extent the April return contract as well). Obviously if news leaks that week that Tiger will play either/both Tavistock or/and Bay Hill all contracts will go to 97+. If it’s 3/20 and Team Tiger is quiet, he isn’t on the Tavistock roster, and the Bay Hill officials say they haven’t heard from him, then the March contract will collapse to near zero.

Edit 1: Not to oversimplify…but in my humble opinion there is only one thing that could stop Tiger from coming back in the next few weeks…