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Tim Finchem’s Fake Out

March 15, 2010 Leave a comment

PGA Commissioner had a nice Tiger fake out today. Word leaked last night that Finchem scheduled a press conference for Monday afternoon. At least part of the population figured it would be to announce Tiger’s return to the tour. Fat chance. Finchem loves to have a nice Monday pressor whenever he inks a new sponsorship deal for the tour. And that’s exactly what the topic of today’s press conference was. I threw out some asks on the March Tiger return contract last night hoping someone might buy the news, but no takers.

I strongly recommend that traders do not put in any “good til cancelled” bids or asks on the March Tiger return contract. I had a 40 share bid out at 70 on Thursday morning after the NY Post article came out saying Tiger was planning to return at Bay Hill. I very nearly got into a car accident racing home to cancel it after the FoxNews and AP stories hit the wire the same day saying Tiger was in fact planning to return at the Masters in April. If you want to put a bid or ask out on that contract, I advise you do it from 6pm to midnight. There’s an extremely low likelihood that the Tiger return announcement will happen in the evening. Even if a reporter writes a story ala the NY Post story, those stories generally post to the web between 3am and 6am, so as long as you kill the order before bedtime you should be safe. As noted in a previous post, I sold all of my March return contract (purchased at an average price of 32) between 75 and 96 on Thursday.

My head says that Tiger will return at the Masters, but I have this little inkling that he could have a “soft return” at Tavistock because that “doesn’t really count” as a golf tournament (but remember it does for Intrade expiry purposes). If stories start coming out on Thursday or Friday about a giant security net coming down in Isleworth then Tiger at Tavistock is a definite possibility. Also recall that the Bay Hill deadline is Friday at 5pm, but PGA commissioner Tim Fenchem has suggested to the media several times in the past week that were Tiger to play Bay Hill, the PGA Tour expects he would give more advance notice than an announcement on Friday afternoon. It is now Monday evening, so we’re really running out of time on the March return contract. If there is no Bay Hill announcement, I expect the contract to go to around 10 this weekend, and then if Tiger doesn’t magically show up at Tavistock on Monday morning, it will go to zero at that point.